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Full text of "Rapid Population Growth Consequences And Policy Implications"

TABLE 13
Reproductive History of Japanese Women in Six Communities3 in Relation to the "Guidance" Contraceptive Program, 1950's
Reproductive Variable	One Year before Guidance	First Year of Guidance	Second Year	Third Year	Fourth Year	Fifth Year
Couples						
guided	2,194	2,230	2,219	2,183	1,686	1,645
Live births	435	401	287	227	147	95
Birth rate	27.4	25.6	18.2	14.2	11.1	10.0
Pregnancy						
rate	37.3	49.0	28.6	21.5	17.3	9.9
Induced						
abortion/						
100 wives	6.3	9.2	8.6	6.6	4.9	2.1
Induced abor-						
tion/100						
pregnancies	21.9	30.0	36.5	36.0	33.5	24.8
Condensation of five studies conducted in the 1950's. Source:  (11).
crease and then to decrease progressively as did the induced abortion rate. This pattern suggests that when the contraceptive guidance program was launched, there were a number of initial failures. Some women seem to have accepted pregnancy, and others were determined to terminate pregnancy by induced abortion. However, the abortion rate continued to be higher than in the preguidance year until the fourth year of the guidance program. In Koya's words:
... it took five years to achieve any really gratifying results. . . . Since it takes experience and skill to practice contraception successfully, failure rates are bound to be high until these are acquired. This is the explanation for the increase in induced abortion at the initial stages of the guidance program.
4. The increase in the abortion-to-pregnancy ratio is due to the number of pregnancies (the denominator) decreasing at a faster rate than did the number of abortions (the numerator). Properly interpreted, this ratio is another expression of the success of the guidance program.
Chile
In Chile concern over increasing induced abortion became manifest around
rintttPt-innr  ci  o>rifc  r\f f>niHdmir\1noirta1   ctiirlJAC  +n  iripntifv anrl  rharartpr-ine through contraception rather than induced abortion. A report by Koya (11) presents the results of an experimental project in six communities after exposure to 5 years of intensive "guidance" effort. Selected findings of this program are summarized in Table 13. The trends of pregnancies and abortions are depicted in Figure 5. From the original tables and the report, the following observations can be made: